I read a blog from a former SN poster today which makes a lot of sense. Here is the link for you to read your self www.brokenfacemask.com. He talks about the possibility of a Texas-OU rematch for the national title. I kind of figured it could happen, but after reading his post and crunching some numbers it is really not that far fetched. Two things must happen in order for it to work. OU has to beat Missouri and Florida beat Alabama. I will give you the numbers and some notes of how things will shake out. First of all here are my projected computer rankings for Texas and Florida as long as OU and Florida wins.
Florida Rank
Massey 4
Sagarin 4
Billingsly 2
Hester 5
Wolfe 5
Colley 3
Total Average 4
BCS Points .88
Texas Rank
Massey 3
Sagarin 2
Billingsly 3
Hester 3
Wolfe 2
Colley 2
Total Average 2.5
BCS Points .94
These projections are based on where they are currently. Also taken into consideration is where OU could move up and could Alabama fall.
If this was the case Florida would need to make up 0.06 from the 2 human polls to offset this.
In the Harris Poll Florida has a 44 point lead on Texas. Now keep in mind Florida is #2 in the Harris Poll so they can not move very far. In addition OU could jump them and Alabama would surely fall behind Texas as well. With that in mind Texas will gain votes as well. For arguments sake lets say the separation is now 75 votes between Texas and Florida. If that is the case then Florida needs to be ahead of Texas in the Coaches poll by 52 votes.
Here is the math.
75 votes / 2850(total possible points in Harris)= 0.0263
0.06(Computers) - 0.0263= 0.0337
0.0337x 1525(total possible points in Coaches)= 51.39
Right now Texas is 11 votes ahead of Florida in the Coaches Poll. Again Florida can only move up so much as OU could and should move up to number 1, while Texas will move up as well because Alabama will surely fall to at least #4. The key will be what is the difference between Texas and Florida. I realize 75 votes in the Harris Poll and Coaches Poll do not sound like much, really look at the two polls and you will see that there is not much movement available. Florida, OU, and Texas will all move up and gain votes, the key is how many more do each of the teams gain. It will be in the voters hands because there will be quite a difference Florida will need to make up in order to offset the computers.
Showing posts with label college football polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label college football polls. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Friday, November 28, 2008
Big 12 South and the BCS
There has been a lot of disputing over the Big 12 South and BCS games over the last couple of weeks, and if OU and Texas Tech win there games on Saturday there will likely be even more.
First of all, with the three teams involved there are arguments for each team on why they should be where they are ranked and who should go to Kansas City to play the Big 12 Championship and also possibly the National Championship. We all know Texas beat OU on a neutral field, Tech beat Texas at Lubbock, and OU crushed Tech in Norman. All three will be tied at 7-1 in the conference. The majority of Texas fans will argue that they should get the nod because of beating OU head to head on a neutral field. Why is it they do not figure Tech into the equation? OU fans say they slaughtered the team that beat Texas and they are playing the best football right now. I have yet to hear any comments on why Tech should get in the game. I know, I know, they got crushed by OU so they are out of the argument. Some will say being they are out of the argument then you have to talk head to head. You cannot rationalize this theory because of three teams being tied with identical records and they all beat each other. If a fan says Tech is out of the equation because of there huge loss to OU, Texas may have won the head to head with OU, but the team that Texas lost to was beaten soundly by OU. Sounds like to me the huge win OU had over Tech actually hurt OU because fans and pollsters eliminate Tech from the equation?
Now a few points to remember about the three games. The Texas-OU game was a very good and closer game than most will admit being the score was 45-35. The Texas- Tech game was pretty much one sided up until the last quarter, although most only remember Tech winning the game with one second left. Remember that Texas only had the lead for a little more than a minute in that game. The OU-Tech game was a total domination by the Sooners from beginning until the end.
Couple of other points to consider. If Texas would have lost to A&M yesterday, do you rank OU ahead of Tech being OU beat Tech? Yes because of the head to head. If Tech was to lose to Baylor on Saturday, do you rank Texas ahead of OU? Yes because of the head to head. If OU was to lose to Oklahoma State on Saturday, do you rank Tech ahead of Texas. Yes because of the head to head, yet that will more than likely not be the case because of where they are ranked right now. Tech might get close if they were to beat Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. The opponents they have faced will be the same. But will voters remember they beat Texas?
So as you can see what you can argue for one you can argue for another. I have yet to hear an argument for any of the teams that solidifies who should be ranked where. Head to head cannot be a part of the equation when there are three teams involved. My last question is if Tech is out of the equation because of there lopsided loss to OU, would this not make OU a frontrunner instead of trying to spin it to head to head with Texas? Lets see what shakes out with the OU-OSU and Tech- Baylor games and then we can make an argument. Also if Florida and/or Alabama were to lose this weekend and/or the loser beat the winner in the SEC Championship, who knows you may see a rematch from that game in Dallas to be in Miami.
First of all, with the three teams involved there are arguments for each team on why they should be where they are ranked and who should go to Kansas City to play the Big 12 Championship and also possibly the National Championship. We all know Texas beat OU on a neutral field, Tech beat Texas at Lubbock, and OU crushed Tech in Norman. All three will be tied at 7-1 in the conference. The majority of Texas fans will argue that they should get the nod because of beating OU head to head on a neutral field. Why is it they do not figure Tech into the equation? OU fans say they slaughtered the team that beat Texas and they are playing the best football right now. I have yet to hear any comments on why Tech should get in the game. I know, I know, they got crushed by OU so they are out of the argument. Some will say being they are out of the argument then you have to talk head to head. You cannot rationalize this theory because of three teams being tied with identical records and they all beat each other. If a fan says Tech is out of the equation because of there huge loss to OU, Texas may have won the head to head with OU, but the team that Texas lost to was beaten soundly by OU. Sounds like to me the huge win OU had over Tech actually hurt OU because fans and pollsters eliminate Tech from the equation?
Now a few points to remember about the three games. The Texas-OU game was a very good and closer game than most will admit being the score was 45-35. The Texas- Tech game was pretty much one sided up until the last quarter, although most only remember Tech winning the game with one second left. Remember that Texas only had the lead for a little more than a minute in that game. The OU-Tech game was a total domination by the Sooners from beginning until the end.
Couple of other points to consider. If Texas would have lost to A&M yesterday, do you rank OU ahead of Tech being OU beat Tech? Yes because of the head to head. If Tech was to lose to Baylor on Saturday, do you rank Texas ahead of OU? Yes because of the head to head. If OU was to lose to Oklahoma State on Saturday, do you rank Tech ahead of Texas. Yes because of the head to head, yet that will more than likely not be the case because of where they are ranked right now. Tech might get close if they were to beat Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. The opponents they have faced will be the same. But will voters remember they beat Texas?
So as you can see what you can argue for one you can argue for another. I have yet to hear an argument for any of the teams that solidifies who should be ranked where. Head to head cannot be a part of the equation when there are three teams involved. My last question is if Tech is out of the equation because of there lopsided loss to OU, would this not make OU a frontrunner instead of trying to spin it to head to head with Texas? Lets see what shakes out with the OU-OSU and Tech- Baylor games and then we can make an argument. Also if Florida and/or Alabama were to lose this weekend and/or the loser beat the winner in the SEC Championship, who knows you may see a rematch from that game in Dallas to be in Miami.
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