I read a blog from a former SN poster today which makes a lot of sense. Here is the link for you to read your self www.brokenfacemask.com. He talks about the possibility of a Texas-OU rematch for the national title. I kind of figured it could happen, but after reading his post and crunching some numbers it is really not that far fetched. Two things must happen in order for it to work. OU has to beat Missouri and Florida beat Alabama. I will give you the numbers and some notes of how things will shake out. First of all here are my projected computer rankings for Texas and Florida as long as OU and Florida wins.
Florida Rank
Massey 4
Sagarin 4
Billingsly 2
Hester 5
Wolfe 5
Colley 3
Total Average 4
BCS Points .88
Texas Rank
Massey 3
Sagarin 2
Billingsly 3
Hester 3
Wolfe 2
Colley 2
Total Average 2.5
BCS Points .94
These projections are based on where they are currently. Also taken into consideration is where OU could move up and could Alabama fall.
If this was the case Florida would need to make up 0.06 from the 2 human polls to offset this.
In the Harris Poll Florida has a 44 point lead on Texas. Now keep in mind Florida is #2 in the Harris Poll so they can not move very far. In addition OU could jump them and Alabama would surely fall behind Texas as well. With that in mind Texas will gain votes as well. For arguments sake lets say the separation is now 75 votes between Texas and Florida. If that is the case then Florida needs to be ahead of Texas in the Coaches poll by 52 votes.
Here is the math.
75 votes / 2850(total possible points in Harris)= 0.0263
0.06(Computers) - 0.0263= 0.0337
0.0337x 1525(total possible points in Coaches)= 51.39
Right now Texas is 11 votes ahead of Florida in the Coaches Poll. Again Florida can only move up so much as OU could and should move up to number 1, while Texas will move up as well because Alabama will surely fall to at least #4. The key will be what is the difference between Texas and Florida. I realize 75 votes in the Harris Poll and Coaches Poll do not sound like much, really look at the two polls and you will see that there is not much movement available. Florida, OU, and Texas will all move up and gain votes, the key is how many more do each of the teams gain. It will be in the voters hands because there will be quite a difference Florida will need to make up in order to offset the computers.
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2 comments:
I picked you op from 3Peat's blog. Great stuff here.
If the computers are as you say, then I agree, Texas and OU will replay it.
However, unless you know the specific formulas, I can't imagine Florida not getting to where they need to get.
I do agree upon closer analysis that the Gators will need to jump Texas in at least one of the computers polls. I think that will happen.
Last year the computers had in their wisdom-
2 loss VTU ahead of 2 loss LSU even though LSU beat VTU by 42
2 loss OU behind 2 loss Mizzou even though OU beat Mizzou TWICE
2 loss OU behind 1 loss Kansas even though Mizzou was ahead of Kansas and beat Kansas
one loss Ohio St. behind both 2 loss LSU and VTU
The issue is not the rank in the human polls but simply how far apart Texas and Florida are.
Like in 2006, Florida will get a boost and jump and idle Michigan er Texas b/c pollsters will not want to see a rematch.
The good news though is that the human polls are released before the computers, so they can't game the system anyway.
Ark,
Thanks for the comments. I completely agree the difference will be on how far apart the Gators and Longhorns will be apart in the polls. There will be separation just how much will be the factor. One big issue will be that OU and Florida will likely split first place votes and then Texas will be at # 3 in the polls. Unlike last year where OSU was an overwhelming #1. We will see how it plays out but it appears to be a very close race to the finish
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