Sunday, December 7, 2008
BCS National Championship
I wrote last week how it was possible for Texas to get in the championship instead of Florida. Well with Florida ahead of Texas by 73 votes in the Coaches Poll, and if these updated computer polls are correct(http://www.tellshowbcs.com/CP.html), Florida needs ahead by Texas by 92 votes or more in the Harris Poll. Check out this site for the computer rankings. I will update once the Harris Poll comes out.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Red River Rematch
I read a blog from a former SN poster today which makes a lot of sense. Here is the link for you to read your self www.brokenfacemask.com. He talks about the possibility of a Texas-OU rematch for the national title. I kind of figured it could happen, but after reading his post and crunching some numbers it is really not that far fetched. Two things must happen in order for it to work. OU has to beat Missouri and Florida beat Alabama. I will give you the numbers and some notes of how things will shake out. First of all here are my projected computer rankings for Texas and Florida as long as OU and Florida wins.
Florida Rank
Massey 4
Sagarin 4
Billingsly 2
Hester 5
Wolfe 5
Colley 3
Total Average 4
BCS Points .88
Texas Rank
Massey 3
Sagarin 2
Billingsly 3
Hester 3
Wolfe 2
Colley 2
Total Average 2.5
BCS Points .94
These projections are based on where they are currently. Also taken into consideration is where OU could move up and could Alabama fall.
If this was the case Florida would need to make up 0.06 from the 2 human polls to offset this.
In the Harris Poll Florida has a 44 point lead on Texas. Now keep in mind Florida is #2 in the Harris Poll so they can not move very far. In addition OU could jump them and Alabama would surely fall behind Texas as well. With that in mind Texas will gain votes as well. For arguments sake lets say the separation is now 75 votes between Texas and Florida. If that is the case then Florida needs to be ahead of Texas in the Coaches poll by 52 votes.
Here is the math.
75 votes / 2850(total possible points in Harris)= 0.0263
0.06(Computers) - 0.0263= 0.0337
0.0337x 1525(total possible points in Coaches)= 51.39
Right now Texas is 11 votes ahead of Florida in the Coaches Poll. Again Florida can only move up so much as OU could and should move up to number 1, while Texas will move up as well because Alabama will surely fall to at least #4. The key will be what is the difference between Texas and Florida. I realize 75 votes in the Harris Poll and Coaches Poll do not sound like much, really look at the two polls and you will see that there is not much movement available. Florida, OU, and Texas will all move up and gain votes, the key is how many more do each of the teams gain. It will be in the voters hands because there will be quite a difference Florida will need to make up in order to offset the computers.
Florida Rank
Massey 4
Sagarin 4
Billingsly 2
Hester 5
Wolfe 5
Colley 3
Total Average 4
BCS Points .88
Texas Rank
Massey 3
Sagarin 2
Billingsly 3
Hester 3
Wolfe 2
Colley 2
Total Average 2.5
BCS Points .94
These projections are based on where they are currently. Also taken into consideration is where OU could move up and could Alabama fall.
If this was the case Florida would need to make up 0.06 from the 2 human polls to offset this.
In the Harris Poll Florida has a 44 point lead on Texas. Now keep in mind Florida is #2 in the Harris Poll so they can not move very far. In addition OU could jump them and Alabama would surely fall behind Texas as well. With that in mind Texas will gain votes as well. For arguments sake lets say the separation is now 75 votes between Texas and Florida. If that is the case then Florida needs to be ahead of Texas in the Coaches poll by 52 votes.
Here is the math.
75 votes / 2850(total possible points in Harris)= 0.0263
0.06(Computers) - 0.0263= 0.0337
0.0337x 1525(total possible points in Coaches)= 51.39
Right now Texas is 11 votes ahead of Florida in the Coaches Poll. Again Florida can only move up so much as OU could and should move up to number 1, while Texas will move up as well because Alabama will surely fall to at least #4. The key will be what is the difference between Texas and Florida. I realize 75 votes in the Harris Poll and Coaches Poll do not sound like much, really look at the two polls and you will see that there is not much movement available. Florida, OU, and Texas will all move up and gain votes, the key is how many more do each of the teams gain. It will be in the voters hands because there will be quite a difference Florida will need to make up in order to offset the computers.
Big 12 Tie Breaker
I realize and understand there is a ton of arguments that can go either way in this three way battle. Just keep in mind what you can argue for one you can also argue for one of the other two.
A lot has been talked about head to head in the this huge debate between OU and Texas. Remember there is a third team involved and that is Texas Tech. Many fans, coaches, and media eliminate Tech because of their huge loss to OU. So therefore, since they are so called eliminated then people want to talk head to head. If OU doesn’t dominate Tech, are they still in the equation? Sure they are but they should still be in the discussion right now. So OU is being punished for dominating Tech. Fans, media and coaches appear to be forgetting that Tech beat Texas and to be honest with you Tech dominated that game for 3 quarters, not that they won in the last second like everyone wants to remember. Texas had the lead in that game for 1:28. Sounds a bit different than “losing in the last second.”
The BCS was the last tie breaker for the decision on who got to go to the Big 12 Championship. It’s a bit funny how a ton of fans and media dislike the BCS for determining this result. The same people prefer the ACC and SEC methods instead. I guess they prefer this method because it is a different outcome but the big contradiction is they use the BCS to determine this as well.
Look at the coaches poll the last 2 weeks. Keep in mind no one in the top 10 lost this week. OU loses 15 votes for beating #12 Oklahoma St 61-41 on the road. Florida lost 16 votes for beating #20 Florida St on the road. Now look at the gains. Alabama understandably gained 3 points for shutting out Auburn. Texas gained 26 votes for beating a 4-7 Texas A&M at home 49-9. USC gained 10 votes for dominating Notre Dame(I can see 10 votes as good as they looked). PSU gained 19 points for playing no one? Utah stayed the same as they should for not playing. Texas Tech gained a whopping 43 points for beating Baylor by 7 at home and they had to come from behind to do so. Granted Crabtree did not play the whole game and Harrell was shook up but to gain that many votes? Boise State gained 11 votes for finishing their season undefeated and Ohio State gained 5 votes for playing no one. I realize any coach can change their minds week in and week out but this is absurd. I realize there has been a ton of politicking by some coaches but the movement for the teams that did not play or barely beat an under 500 team at home is crazy. You can tell some coaches had some agenda. This is a perfect example why all polls should be public knowledge week in and week out.
Brent Musburger mentioned during the OU-Oklahoma St game that rather than use the BCS the Big 12 should use point differential amongst all the common teams they played in conference. While I agree, he changed his tune on ESPN the next day and wanted to use point differential to get it down to 2 teams and then head to head. This was just another way to eliminate OU. Here is an issue with this new theory. OU would be punished for dominating Texas Tech. Here’s why. Here is the point differential against the Big12 South and Kansas being all three played Kansas.
OU 138
Texas 100
Tech 65
Lets say OU only beat Tech by 9 instead of 44. Then it would look like this.
OU 103
Texas 100
Tech 100.
OU still wins the differential but now Texas and Tech are tied. So again OU is would be punished in this scenario for dominating Tech. In addition, how many teams would be comfortable with only having a 9 point lead with Tech. This would also make it to where teams are not just playing football and trying to manage the number of points scored.
Couple of things that worked in OU’s favor in all this. Although unfortunate here me out and you can see why. The weekend OU lost to Texas, number #2 Missouri and #3 LSU lost as well. This vaulted Texas past #4 Alabama and only dropped OU to #6 being the others lost behind them as well. Unfortunately when Texas lost no one else behind them lost and they fell to #7. That same week OU moved to #4. As the weeks went by both Texas and OU kept moving up and OU’s destroying Tech vaulted them up higher. Now the next week we saw the agenda work and put Texas within 1 point of OU. As you can see, although not always fair, sometimes when you lose makes a difference. It just so happens that those 2 other teams lost the same week as OU and Texas did not have that luck.
Bottom line in all this is that there are 3 teams that are very deserving of going to the Big 12 Championship, unfortunately only 1 can go. All have valid arguments and each argument can go in a circle. While I can look at all sides it is very hard to come up with a solid argument for anyone of the 3.
The bigger injustice is that there is three teams that should be going to a BCS game for the second year in a row yet only two can go. The one main thing that I think needs to be changed is to make all the votes public all year long so anyone and everyone can see any hidden agendas and trying to manipulate the BCS.
A lot has been talked about head to head in the this huge debate between OU and Texas. Remember there is a third team involved and that is Texas Tech. Many fans, coaches, and media eliminate Tech because of their huge loss to OU. So therefore, since they are so called eliminated then people want to talk head to head. If OU doesn’t dominate Tech, are they still in the equation? Sure they are but they should still be in the discussion right now. So OU is being punished for dominating Tech. Fans, media and coaches appear to be forgetting that Tech beat Texas and to be honest with you Tech dominated that game for 3 quarters, not that they won in the last second like everyone wants to remember. Texas had the lead in that game for 1:28. Sounds a bit different than “losing in the last second.”
The BCS was the last tie breaker for the decision on who got to go to the Big 12 Championship. It’s a bit funny how a ton of fans and media dislike the BCS for determining this result. The same people prefer the ACC and SEC methods instead. I guess they prefer this method because it is a different outcome but the big contradiction is they use the BCS to determine this as well.
Look at the coaches poll the last 2 weeks. Keep in mind no one in the top 10 lost this week. OU loses 15 votes for beating #12 Oklahoma St 61-41 on the road. Florida lost 16 votes for beating #20 Florida St on the road. Now look at the gains. Alabama understandably gained 3 points for shutting out Auburn. Texas gained 26 votes for beating a 4-7 Texas A&M at home 49-9. USC gained 10 votes for dominating Notre Dame(I can see 10 votes as good as they looked). PSU gained 19 points for playing no one? Utah stayed the same as they should for not playing. Texas Tech gained a whopping 43 points for beating Baylor by 7 at home and they had to come from behind to do so. Granted Crabtree did not play the whole game and Harrell was shook up but to gain that many votes? Boise State gained 11 votes for finishing their season undefeated and Ohio State gained 5 votes for playing no one. I realize any coach can change their minds week in and week out but this is absurd. I realize there has been a ton of politicking by some coaches but the movement for the teams that did not play or barely beat an under 500 team at home is crazy. You can tell some coaches had some agenda. This is a perfect example why all polls should be public knowledge week in and week out.
Brent Musburger mentioned during the OU-Oklahoma St game that rather than use the BCS the Big 12 should use point differential amongst all the common teams they played in conference. While I agree, he changed his tune on ESPN the next day and wanted to use point differential to get it down to 2 teams and then head to head. This was just another way to eliminate OU. Here is an issue with this new theory. OU would be punished for dominating Texas Tech. Here’s why. Here is the point differential against the Big12 South and Kansas being all three played Kansas.
OU 138
Texas 100
Tech 65
Lets say OU only beat Tech by 9 instead of 44. Then it would look like this.
OU 103
Texas 100
Tech 100.
OU still wins the differential but now Texas and Tech are tied. So again OU is would be punished in this scenario for dominating Tech. In addition, how many teams would be comfortable with only having a 9 point lead with Tech. This would also make it to where teams are not just playing football and trying to manage the number of points scored.
Couple of things that worked in OU’s favor in all this. Although unfortunate here me out and you can see why. The weekend OU lost to Texas, number #2 Missouri and #3 LSU lost as well. This vaulted Texas past #4 Alabama and only dropped OU to #6 being the others lost behind them as well. Unfortunately when Texas lost no one else behind them lost and they fell to #7. That same week OU moved to #4. As the weeks went by both Texas and OU kept moving up and OU’s destroying Tech vaulted them up higher. Now the next week we saw the agenda work and put Texas within 1 point of OU. As you can see, although not always fair, sometimes when you lose makes a difference. It just so happens that those 2 other teams lost the same week as OU and Texas did not have that luck.
Bottom line in all this is that there are 3 teams that are very deserving of going to the Big 12 Championship, unfortunately only 1 can go. All have valid arguments and each argument can go in a circle. While I can look at all sides it is very hard to come up with a solid argument for anyone of the 3.
The bigger injustice is that there is three teams that should be going to a BCS game for the second year in a row yet only two can go. The one main thing that I think needs to be changed is to make all the votes public all year long so anyone and everyone can see any hidden agendas and trying to manipulate the BCS.
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